NewVA Moves

VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled) vs. CAFE

I have submitted this piece for consideration as an op-ed in The Roanoke Times, but I'm not sure that it will be accepted for publication.  I think that VMT is a measurement worth discussing, and in the interest of starting the conversation offer the piece here:

Congress’s recently-passed energy legislation has a lot going for it, whether or not you agree with the controversial removal of tax subsides for oil companies, and one of the most highly touted features is a long-overdue increase in CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) standard to 35 mpg from the current 27.5.  Despite some naysaying, there is evidence that the technology to achieve this standard already exists; and where it doesn’t exist or is too expensive to implement, the legislation’s 2020 goal allows ample time to develop it.  If you don’t agree, think about how powerful your computer was 13 years ago, how large your cell phone, and how many songs fit on your non-existent MP3 player.  A decade is a geologic age in terms of technology development when the pressure for change is applied.  Unfortunately, that geologic age also presents a problem:  The new CAFE standards will take a long time to implement fully and could even lead to increased traffic volumes.  We need to look at another measure – VMT, or Vehicle Miles Traveled – in addition to CAFE.

The new energy legislation requires that all new cars sold in 2020 meet the standards, while older vehicles are understandably exempt.  According to current Kelly Blue Book, new cars represent 28% of all sales each year, and only 7.5% of cars on the road.  At that rate, it would take many, many years to see the full impact of the new standards propagate across America’s roads and to reap the full benefits of lowered fuel consumption, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions generated by our transportation system.  Further, as the gas mileage of vehicles increases, there is a risk commuters can begin pouring out of their trains, buses, carpools and bike lanes and back into high-efficiency, single-occupant vehicles; the resulting increases in traffic congestion and total vehicles on the road can offset some, though not all, of the progress made by improved fuel efficiency.  And, finally, it’s important to note that the gas tax – a significant portion of the per-gallon cost at the pump – is the major source of revenue for the already ailing Highway Trust Fund, the pot of federal money that supports the nation’s major transportation infrastructure.  An improvement in fuel efficiency that actually increases traffic would erode the funds available for maintenance and construction of roads even as more cars are traveling them.

Luckily, Virginia already has a head start on using CAFE’s important partner, Vehicle Miles Traveled.  VMT is another measure of efficiency; in this case, the efficiency of an entire transportation system rather than individual vehicles.  It’s a factor in describing traffic congestion, fuel consumption, wear-and-tear on roads, and vehicle emissions; and, like CAFE, a low number is better.  It means fewer cars are driving less miles to move the same amount of people.  Most metropolitan areas in Virginia have a program that addresses VMT:  RIDE Solutions in Roanoke and the New River Valley is one of them.  Though each program may be described differently depending on their primary function – alternative transportation, congestion mitigation, transportation demand management, commuter assistance – the goal of each one is essentially the same: to reduce regional VMT.  Getting cars off the roads and commuters into healthier, faster, more efficient modes drastically improves the ability of our roads to get people where they need to be, with the added benefit of reducing energy consumption and related emissions far beyond what Congress’s new CAFE standard alone can do.  Unlike increasing vehicle fuel efficiency, reducing VMT and the related loss of the gas tax comes with a corresponding reduction in traffic volumes, additional highway longevity, and a diminished need for new construction.

Given the amount of energy that goes into our transportation system – 43% of all energy use in Virginia, according to Stephen Walz, the Commonwealth’s Senior Advisor for Energy Policy – the new CAFE standards are a laudable and necessary component in a plan of energy reduction.  But real energy independence, and meeting the challenge of global climate change driven by tailpipe emissions, will come not just with more efficient vehicles, but a more efficient transportation system through reduced VMT.  The Commonwealth and the local governments of the Roanoke and New River Valleys who support programs like RIDE Solutions are playing a vital role in addressing these challenges by providing their commuters options, but ultimately commuters themselves – and the employers to which they are commuting - must understand that changes in personal driving habits will have a much larger, and far more immediate, impact, than just better technology.  The cleanest mile is always the one not driven.